Madonna’s “Rebel Heart” might have been number 1 if it weren’t for the soundtrack to the TV series “Empire.” When the numbers come in this afternoon at hitsdailydouble, “Rebel Heart” will be number 1 on the total chart, which counts streaming and all digital downloads. “Empire” will be number 1. “Empire” will also finish at number 1 on Billboard’s chart, as they now count everything, too.

Who could have guessed that “Empire” would come out of nowhere and steal all the attention in the culture? It’s out of left field, an ambush of sorts.

Madonna’s one consolation: she’ll be number 1 on the hitsdailydouble “regular” chart which is just CDs and digital downloads, but no counts from places like Spotify or Pandora. Some of Madonna’s sales will come from digital copies of “Rebel Heart” that came with concert tickets. But I’m told by various sources that those copies are not a big factor, not anything like they were two years ago for “MDNA.”

The rough numbers stack up like this: “Rebel Heart” will have a total of about 115,00 copies. “Empire” will have around 130,000 copies. Around 25,000 “Empire” sales come from streaming, however. But they count into that total, so in the end, Madonna does not debut at number 1 for the first time since 1998.

Actual numbers: streaming plus sales Empire 128,640; Madonna 121,972.

What I do hear is that next week, Madonna could have a drop similar — around 70%–to her record breaking snap in 2013. Even though Madonna will appear on the “Ellen” show from today through Friday, “Empire” has the momentum. They also have a two hour season finale on Wednesday night that should go through the roof.

New releases today from Modest Mouse and AWOL Nation may play a part in sales of those two albums as well.

On the other hand, Madonna’s concert tickets are where the meat and potatoes are for the Material Woman. And there, she’s doing fine.

But what’s happened to Madonna is not new. Her album sales have been in decline for over a decade. She is no different than any other legacy artist trying to sell new music, from Pink Floyd to Mariah Carey to Jennifer Lopez and so on. Teens drive album sales, and they don’t want even the best music from people older than their parents. Barbra Streisand and Tony Bennett are the exceptions. I wish it were otherwise. But radio doesn’t want “old” voices, so there’ s no place to promote this stuff. Sirius XM satellite radio is pretty much the only safe haven for classic artists to showcase new work. And legacy fans pretty much just want the Hits. Over and over. It’s a shame. Maybe this is why Billy Joel shut down writing new music 20 years ago.

What should Madonna do? Her next record should get younger artists to join her in re-recording hits in duets. This usually works like a charm.

PS I love “Ellen,” but the idea of Madonna doing it. She must be biting her tongue the whole time. Young mothers and housewives are not her scene. I hope it helps.

Meanwhile, here’s one of my favorite Madonna songs:

Madonna Beautiful Stranger by madonnaofficial

UPDATE Lady Gaga’s lawyer, Tracy Landauer, points out that even those these are the figures, the Born this Way Foundation has helped thousands of teens with the bus tour. Plus, survey information taken from the teens has been extremely helpful in papers delivered for seminars and for educational studies. Plus, they don’t give grants, period. So they’re in the red. You can’t have everything.

EARLIER It’s hard to be a saint in the city. That’s what Bruce Springsteen said right at the start. Lady Gaga is finding that out. She’s tried hard to help her fans through her Born this Way Foundation charity. But there are problems. For 2013, Born this Way finished in the red big time. Revenue less expenses for 2013 was minus $2.2 million. Total assets when all said was done was negative $94,000.  Lady Gaga was waiting to be reimbursed for $100,000 in expenses.

No one did anything wrong, and from the Form 990 for Federal filing, there’s no indication that alarms should be ringing. But the charity’s Born the Way bus, which went around the country as an emissary to fans, did them in. For example, this was all after revenue of over $1.8 million.

Unfortunately, the filing is so vague that we don’t know if the silk throated Gaga– aka Stefani Germanotta– donated all the money herself or there were other donees. What it does say that revenue was down from $2.6 million from the prior year. Also, no grants were made to anyone. Zero.

So where did the money go? Salaries increased to $157,388 from a little less than $80,ooo. Who got ’em? We don’t know, but payroll taxes were paid of $15,992 for someone.

Other expenses included $101,796 for travel, $91,574 for legal, $171,459 for “philanthropic consulting.”

Total functional expenses were $4 million for a foundation that didn’t actually help any specific individual.  It does seem that around $3 million of that was spent with a company called Jack Morton Worldwide to “create, equip and manage” the Born Brave Bus to fulfill the foundation’s “programmatic objectives.”

You know, I love Lady Gaga’s voice. I admire her spirit and her creativity. I think she’ll be a major force in entertainment for decades. But this Foundation doesn’t seem like it was such a great idea in practical application. Where do things stand now? The website has the equivalent of an “out to lunch” sign on it.

Here’s the video for Jack Morton, a branding and event company. Charity doesn’t seem to be their prime business. Neither does actual business. They seem like one of those companies from thirtysomething. And they’re on Third Avenue, where people wear suits, ties, and dresses.

Madonna’s concert ticket sales, you don’t have to worry about. A soft start doesn’t mean a bad one, and she only has 8 dates on sale so far. Some cities are starting to add second shows, so you know, Madonna live always does well.

On the charts, it’s a different story. Legacy artists struggle, all of them. In the 70s and 80s we never had artists in their 50s and 60s pushing to stay relevant with new music. Now we have rafts of them, no room on radio, and labels like Verve being shut down. All the while, the audience for older artists increases and no one listens.

Madonna’s “Rebel Heart” is at 7 on iTunes. The physical CD at amazon is down below 100, both clean and dirty versions. The digital version on amazon is at number 2, and the Super Deluxe CD is in the top 10. Madonna is not going to debut at number 1 on Tuesday. She’ll be lucky to finish second. And that’s even with giveaway CDs that come with concert tickets.

Madonna has some big issues about transitioning to adulthood. She cannot sing like Lady Gaga, so there’s no Tony Bennett-type standards album in the future. She’s not going to cover other peoples’ songs. She has to have the songs made for her. In an interview with EdgeMedia she talks about producers coming and going on “Rebel Heart,” and how the hack of her demos caused her a lot of anxiety.

Anyway, “Rebel Heart” will go gold one day (500,000 copies) after Madonna’s toured. If only she had an executive producer to shape the album and market a single. But this is the problem when you’re not really on a label, and your CD is just a tour souvenir. Someone should make a great video for “Addicted to the One that Got Away” of all of Madonna’s ex-es.