Friday, June 19, 2026

National Board Not a Great Oscar Predictor–7 Times Right out of 20

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The National Board of Review is not a great indicator of the Academy Award.

The NBR has chosen the Best Picture only 7 times in the last 20 years. They’ve only picked it three times in the last decade.

What the NBR does do is build up false hopes. They were the ones who got the “Up in the Air” crowd riled up. They were very disappointed later.

2010     The Social Network
2009     Up in the Air
2008     Slumdog Millionaire- won the Oscar
2007     No Country for Old Men – won the Oscar
2006     Letters from Iwo Jima
2005     Good Night, And Good Luck
2004     Finding Neverland
2003     Mystic River – won the Oscar corrected: lost to “Lord of the Rings”
2002     The Hours
2001     Moulin Rouge
2000     Quills
1999     American Beauty – won the Oscar
1998     Gods and Monsters
1997     L.A. Confidential
1996     Shine
1995     Sense & Sensibility
1994     Pulp Fiction  (tie) Forrest Gump – won the Oscar
1993     Schindler’s List – won the Oscar
1992     Howards End
1991     The Silence of the Lambs – won the Oscar

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Roger Friedman
Roger Friedman
Roger Friedman is the founder and editor-in-chief of Showbiz411. He wrote the FOX411 column on FoxNews.com from 1999 to 2009, where he covered Michael Jackson, and previously wrote the "Intelligencer" column at New York magazine in the mid-1990s, where he covered the O.J. Simpson trial. He also edited Fame magazine. His bylines have appeared in The New York Times, The Washington Post, the New York Daily News, the New York Post, Vogue, Details, and the Miami Herald. He is a voting member of the Critics Choice Awards (Film and Television branches), and his movie reviews are tracked by Rotten Tomatoes. With D.A. Pennebaker and Chris Hegedus, he co-produced the 2002 documentary "Only the Strong Survive," which screened at Directors' Fortnight at the Cannes Film Festival.

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