Saturday, April 13, 2024

Golden Globes: If “Barbie” Wins Tonight, Does That Kill Its Oscar Chances? Academy Will Go Another Way


There’s a definite downside to winning a Golden Globe award.

When tonight’s results come in, the winners may wish things hadn’t gone their way.

Most of the Best Picture Drama winners at the Globes did not go on to win Oscars. They include last year’s “The Fabelmans,” plus “The Power of the Dog,” “1917,” “Bohemian Rhapsody,” “Boyhood,” “Three Billboards,” and “The Revenant.”

Once those films won their Globes, they were done, kaput. Why? The Academy membership had no respect for the Hollywood Foreign Press and avoided rubber stamping their choices. Sometimes they did in weak years or when it was too obvious. Those times were “Nomadland,” “Moonlight,” most recently. One of the few times a Globes choice for Best Comedy or Musical went anywhere was in 2018 with “Green Book.”

So keep that in mind tonight. The Globes aren’t a precursor of anything when it comes to Best Picture. If “Barbie” sweeps, that almost guarantees the fun is over. “Oppenheimer” will probably take Best Picture Drama tonight. When that happens, there will be wiggle room for other competitors at the Oscars. “Killers of the Flower Moon” looms large, although “The Holdovers” looms like “Green Book.” People love it. “American Fiction” is also gaining traction.

As for actors tonight: Bradley Cooper and Margot Robbie would seem like a cinch in their categories. Annette Bening is strong in hers– Best Actress in a Drama, although Lily Gladstone may be too important even for the Globes to ignore. Best Actor in a Comedy is a toss up. I’m sure the 60 or so members of the HFPA who have transferred over to the new group wanted Timothee Chalamet. But Paul Giamatti or Jeffrey Wright could be surprise spoilers. Wait and see.

Roger Friedman
Roger Friedman
Roger Friedman began his Showbiz411 column in April 2009 after 10 years with Fox News, where he created the Fox411 column. His movie reviews are carried by Rotten Tomatoes, and he is a member of both the movie and TV branches of the Critics Choice Awards. His articles have appeared in dozens of publications over the years including New York Magazine, where he wrote the Intelligencer column in the mid 90s and covered the OJ Simpson trial, and Fox News (when it wasn't so crazy) where he covered Michael Jackson. He is also the writer and co-producer of "Only the Strong Survive," a selection of the Cannes, Sundance, and Telluride Film festivals, directed by DA Pennebaker and Chris Hegedus.

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