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2013 Oscars: How Things Stack Up So Far

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Everyone wants to prognosticate the Oscars. They are months away. We still have not seen several movies, and some we won’t see for a while. Steven Spielberg’s “Lincoln” and Tom Hooper’s “Les Miserables” are big, big question marks. No one knows what will come with Quentin Tarantino’s “Django Unchained.” But based on what we’ve seen, and what’s being shown this week at the New York Film Festival, here’s how things stack up. To be continued, with many twists and turns to come…

BEST PICTURE:

Argo, The Master, Silver Linings Playbook, Exotic Marigold Hotel, The Life of Pi, The Paperboy, and Cloud Atlas are all in the mix to different degrees. Lincoln, Les Miserables, and Django Unchained are out there, somewhere. Zero Dark Thirty and The Promised Land also have promise. Flight, and two movies with similar titles–Quartet, and A Late Quartet, have possibilities. Hitchcock, with Anthony Hopkins, remains a mystery still.

BEST ACTOR:

Ben Affleck (Argo), Joaquin Phoenix (The Master), Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings), Tom Hanks (Cloud Atlas), Tommy Lee Jones (Hope Springs), Richard Gere (Arbitrage), Omar Sy (The Intouchables), Bill Murray (Hyde Park on Hudson), John Hawkes (The Sessions), Brad Pitt (Killing Them Softly) are all strong as is Jean-Louis Trintignant, a long shot from Amour. Daniel Day Lewis, Denzel Washington, Hugh Jackman, and Russell Crowe are wild cards.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Philip Seymour Hoffman, Robert DeNiro,  Roberto Benigni (outstanding in Woody Allen’s To Rome with Love), Scoot McNairy (Killing Them Softly–watch him), Alan Arkin, Jim Broadbent (brilliant in Cloud Atlas), Matthew McConnaughey (The Paperboy), Jeremy Irvine, lead the list. A lot depends on who does what in Django.

BEST ACTRESS:

Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings), Halle Berry (Cloud Atlas), Kiera Knightley (Anna Karenina), Meryl Streep (Hope Springs), Viola Davis (Won’t Back Down), Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone), Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha), Emmanelle Riva from Amour are names to be considered. I loved Jane Fonda in Peace, Love and Understanding–she’ll get a comedy nomination from the Golden Globes, certainly.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Nicole Kidman, Amy Adams, Judi Dench, Maggie Smith, Anne Hathaway (Dark Knight Rises? Les Miz?), Jackie Weaver, Susan Sarandon, Mickey Sumner (Frances Ha), Laura Linney (The Details), Winona Ryder (The Iceman). Unknown: Sally Field is a strong possibility from Lincoln, Kerry Washington from Django.

BEST DIRECTOR:

Ben Affleck, David O. Russell, Paul Thomas Anderson, and then–who knows? Steven Spielberg, Tom Hooper, Kathryn Bigelow? The Wachowskis? Woody Allen? (Come on, the singing in the shower stuff was hilarious).

Arnold Schwarzenegger’s Younger Son Christopher Now a Shriver, Too– Joins Brother Patrick

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Here comes Arnold Schwarzenegger’s autobiography, “Total Recall: My Unbelievably True Life Story”  published officially today, Monday, October 1st. It was more or less panned by the New York Times yesterday. The pre-publicity has Arnold cheating on Maria Shriver before they were married, with Brigitte Nielsen., And then later with the maid, with whom he fathered a child. My sources say Maria Shriver had no idea all this stuff was going to be in the book, and she’s not happy.

Effect on the kids:  Now both of Arnold’s sons with Maria Shriver have taken her last name and jettisoned Schwarzenegger. Younger son Christopher, who just turned 15, entered Twitter as a Shriver. His father’s illegitimate son with housekeeper Mildred Baena, is just a few days older than Christopher. Son Patrick has stuck to his guns since his father’s infidelities were discovered last winter. He calls himself Patrick Shriver on Twitter. The couple’s eldest daughter, Katherine, still a Schwarzenegger, announced on Sunday night that she was taking a break from Twitter. Daughter Christina has so far also kept Arnold’s name. Interesting that the sons dropped it and the daughters retained it.

On a Tweet from September 28th, Christopher thanked Katherine, Patrick and Maria for giving him a great birthday. No mention of Arnold.

With all this press, you’d think the book would be doing better out of the gate. But it’s at number 49 tonight on Amazon.com. I suppose as Arnold does the interview circuit, it will go up the charts. But it’s not an instant hit.

UPDATE: “Total Recall” hit number 20 on overall non fiction this morning. Arnold’s crazy and frank interview on “60 Minutes” obviously piqued everyone’s curiosity.

As “The Master” Nears $10 Mil Box Office, A Real Life Parallel Occurs

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Paul Thomas Anderson’s “The Master” is nearing $10 million in limited release, with just about everyone predicting acting awards for its three stars–Philip Seymour Hoffman, Joaquin Phoenix and Amy Adams.

But no one could have predicted the real life parallel that’s just occurred in Hollywood, as Scientology raised and educated actor Johnny Lewis — on a hit cable show– this week murdered his landlady and fell to his death. Lewis killed Catherine Davis, 81, who ran a kind of home for screenwriters and actors in Hollywood not far from the massive amount of real estate owned by Scientology including their Celebrity Center.

Since the tragedy, Lewis has been revealed as something of a drug addicted either socio-or psychopath, with arrests, jail time, and a long list of inexplicable crazy-scary altercations. He’s something of a real life Freddie Quell, the nutcase played by Phoenix so deftly in “The Master.” Freddie is completely off his rocker, given to violent outbursts and uncontrollable fits. He’s also a raging alcoholic who mixes up his own concoctions to stay anesthetized.

Freddie, of course, becomes involved with Lancaster Dodd, the charismatic leader of a made up “religion” called The Cause. The Cause has been compared to Scientology, as Dodd is based at least a little on L. Ron Hubbard, the science fiction writer who invented Scientology.

Lewis’s father rose to the high ranks of Scientology, becoming an Operating Thetan 7– or someone trusted enough to be told about aliens and other Scientology mumbo jumbo. Lewis himself took Scientology courses and was featured as a “celebrity Scientologist” until this week. In “The Master,” Freddie becomes the most trusted associate of Dodd until he disappears after one of Dodd’s weirder experiments.

“The Master” is playing in 850 theaters for the time being, and will likely stay in limited release until awards season. The Weinstein Company is following a similar path to its past “literary” releases, which usually catch fire with nominations and then take off. Scientologists are flooding internet message boards claiming the movie is a dud, boring, or a failure–far from the truth, but funny to read.

Exclusive: Justin Timberlake Finally Recording New Album After Six Years

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Exclusive: Justin Timberlake is in the studio making a new album. There’s no title yet, but I’m told Timberlake has been working around the clock with Timbaland and other producers. The album, which could have “many more than a dozen new tracks” would be ready for the first quarter of 2013 for Sony’s RVA label.

The project is considered very “hush-hush” at Sony, and very much low profile as it’s being done quickly.

It’s been six years since Timberlake’s second album, “Future Sex/Love Sounds,” came out in 2006. It yielded several hits like “What Goes Around Comes Around” and “Sexyback” (more a riff than a song, but whatever). But then Timberlake went into movies and made only occasional appearances as a guest star on other people’s records.

The album is being recorded in Los Angeles. A new Timberlake album would be an adrenaline shot in the charts. A gifted singer and dancer, Timberlake should easily have retained his following even after more than half a decade.

Madonna Gives Another $750K to Kabbalah, But Little to Anyone Else

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Madonna– rich, rich, rich–is not very charitable at this point. Her new tax filing for her Ray of Light Foundation paints an interesting picture about the currently on tour artist and what she does with her money. In 2011, Madonna only gave away $770,000– and nearly all to it went to the cultish Kabbalah Center in Los Angeles. Despite all the scandals, lawsuits, and possible grand jury, Madonna simply gave Karen Berg’s sketchy, possibly harmful group the same amount she did last year.

And that’s just about it. Madonna also gave $15,000 to the TJ Martell Foundation, and $5000 to the Jewish Big Brothers and Big Sisters of Los Angeles. There was nothing for the arts, AIDS or cancer research, or any regular religious institutions. Consider that celebrities like Oprah Winfrey and Rosie O’Donnell give away millions, support schools,–oh wait–

Madonna was supposed to build a leadership academy in Malawi, Africa. But that’s over and the charity involved– a Kabbalah front called Raising Malawi–is gone with it. So much for Madonna and Africa.

Madonna did pay one salary, to Philippe van den Bossche: $106,986. That was an increase of $35,000 from the prior year. And then Madonna fired van den Bossche, who took the fall in the collapse of Raising Malawi.

And while Madonna gave away $770,000 in 2011, she lists the total assets of Ray of Light Foundation at a whopping $9.3 million. Forbes says she’s worth $650 million.

Ousted Warner Music Chief Finds Ally in Forbes 400 Billionaire

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EXCLUSIVE: Lyor Cohen is a survivor. He’s a man who certainly lands on his feet. Ousted just this week from his position running Warner Music Group–which he basically helped run into the ground–Cohen has already bounced back. He sent an email around on Friday notifying his pals that he was now working out of the offices of Toms Capital LLC, a hedge fund on West 14th St. in the trendy meatpacking district run by Israeli billionaire Noam Gottesman.

Gottesman is number 245 on the Forbes 400. He’s also 804th of all billionaires in the world. He owns a lot of things including the GLG hedge fund — which he sold in 2010–and the very hot restaurant Eleven Madison Park. According to Forbes he now concentrates on collecting art and on philanthropy. http://www.forbes.com/profile/noam-gottesman/

Cohen knows how to play the corporate game. He went from Edgar Bronfman, Jr. to Gottesman, 51, almost seamlessly. Cohen has a famous girlfriend in designer Tory Burch; Gottesman reportedly dates actress Lucy Liu. Gottesman obviously doesn’t follow the record business, or he’d know that Warner Music was slashed to ribbons under Cohen and Bronfman, developed no new artists, and relied heavily on the mega selling acts they inherited to keep them going. While Universal Music and Sony soared, WMG fell into moribundity. Eventually it was sold to Len Blavatnik’s Access Industries and taken private after the stock of WMG fell from $33 to almost nothing.

Last week, the New York Post reported that Cohen had been “noodling with the idea of” a music management firm, while at WMG. It seems like Toms Capital may be his biggest noodle. Gottesman must know how much it costs to be in business with Cohen, who played his own version of Hamptons-type Monopoly with expensive homes while at WMG. It would appear that Cohen had Gottesman set up as a Plan B if he couldn’t cut a deal with Blavatnik.

The email was sent to: “Partners, friends, family members, artists, producers, managers, agents, lawyers and athletes”… Athletes? Maybe Cohen is going to manage not just musicians.

One funny thing: when you call the phone number Cohen sent out on his email, an automated voice mispronounces Cohen’s first name in a most unfortunate way. That should be changed pronto on Monday.

 

Ang Lee’s “Pi”: Everyone Wants A Piece of It

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Ang Lee says he’s still “tweaking” his new and very glorious “Life of Pi,” which opened the New York Film Festival last night. “There’s still so much to do,” Ang told me. “Color is not right yet, and all the effect aren’t perfect. They can be perfect.” He literally brought what we used to call the “wet print”–now maybe the “just burned DVD” to Alice Tully Hall for the movie’s world presentation.

I think “Pi,” based on the 2001 best selling fable, is a big family hit, a huge advance for 3D–it looks insanely good– and a popular choice for Oscar nominations. It’s a fanciful, exciting, passionate adventure story. For Ang Lee, whose credits include “Crouching Tiger,” “The Ice Storm,” and “Brokeback Mountain,” “The Life of Pi” is a huge achievement. Oh yes, the 3D– the audience actually gasped en emasse right at the beginning–yes, it’s very, very good.

Many celebrities and bold face names poured through the two opening night screenings, and then went on to the party at the Harvard Club. Among them: Sting and Trudie Styler, Carol Kane, and Benjamin Walker. Wendi Murdoch was also in the house, after reportedly attending a cocktail party thrown by ousted 20th Century Fox co-chief Tom Rothman in his Central Park West apartment house– even though it was Wendi’s busband, Rupert, who sandbagged Rothman. Why not?

Richard Pena got a big ovation–he’s leaving his post running the festival and programming it for 25 years. What a ride! Not one but two people are replacing him. That should tell you how hard his job was, and how well he did it!

The movie’s main star is a 19 year old named Suraj Sharma, from Bangalore. He’s never acted before. He got the job when his brother went into audition, the producers spotted him. Just like Dev Patel in “Slumdog Millionaire,” Suraj could be a break out star. Fox should really push him to the teen crowd. His brother is not upset, though. He’s happy to ride the wave, and is looking for his own roles. Suraf’s father, who writes computer software, is hopeful his sons will still go to go to college before Hollywood steals them!

 

Adele May Be A Bigger Draw than Daniel Craig for “Skyfall”

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The response to my announcements about Adele singing the James Bond  “Skyfall” song are huge. Now a couple of other sites have been posting what they say is cover art for the “Skyfall” single. I have no idea if they are correct. After I posted some of the lyrics to “Skyfall,” Adele’s publicist Paul Moss tweeted his excitement about the single. Then Ryan Tedder of OneRepublic Tweeted that he’d heard the song, and loved it. He deleted the Tweet shortly thereafter. Hundreds of websites have picked up our stories, almost all with credit, and some with backlinks. (Backlinks are key, people!) Many heartfelt thanks to all of them.

It does seem like the Adele song could be a bigger draw than even James Bond himself, Daniel Craig. What a coup for the producers of “Skyfall,” especially Barbara Bruccoli. She’s now sitting on the first new Adele record in almost two years. When it finally hits–which we think is this Friday via Twitter–“Let the Sky Fall” could turn into the Biggest single of the year. It’s almost guaranteed Oscar and Grammy nominations. (And the October 5th release could be tweaked to make the September 30th Grammy deadline.)

Can you imagine the pandemonium of Adele singing live at the Academy Awards? Especially an Oscar show produced by Craig Zadan and Neil Meron, with at least Anne Hathaway and Hugh Jackman singing from “Les Miserables,” plus maybe Oscar Isaac doing “Ten Years”?

Here’s the link to the purported cover art: http://www.gigwise.com/news/76671/adele-let-the-sky-fall-single-artwork-revealed. Again I have no idea if it’s true, or right, but it looks good. http://www.showbiz411.com/2012/09/27/adele-james-bond-skyfall-song-written-with-rolling-in-the-deep-writer

http://www.showbiz411.com/2012/09/25/exclusive-adele-james-bond-skyfall-song-is-classic-007

http://www.showbiz411.com/2012/09/13/confirmed-adele-all-set-for-james-bond-skyfall-song

 

 

Beatles Out of Tune with iTunes: Publisher Will Negotiate Fees Directly

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There’s a big change coming in the way the Beatles’ music publisher will deal with digital music providers starting January 1st. Sony/ATV Music, which has the Beatles catalog and is co-owned by the Michael Jackson estate–and now also has the Michael Jackson catalog like “Beat It” and “Billie Jean”-is doing something groundbreaking. They’re going to negotiate directly with digital download companies like iTunes, amazon, Pandora, Spotify.

Sony ATV is leaving traditional music license companies ASCAP and BMI for collecting royalties–just for digital, not anything else. ASCAP and BMI will continue to monitor and collect all other performance royalties on Sony ATV Music.

But with the lions share of music switching to digital downloads, Sony ATV is going to cut deals directly with the companies involved instead of leaving it to BMI and ASCAP. They think this will be better for the artists, who’ve been getting blanket deals with regular licensing. BMI and ASCAP have been representing artists and their royalties since time began.

For the Beatles with iTunes, this should be especially interesting. iTunes and Apple still have exclusive on downloading Beatles music. But when the deal was made, EMI–the Beatles’ overall record company–agreed to let the Beatles themselves collect the money from iTunes and then pay EMI. Now EMI has been sold to Universal Music Group. (I know, this gets complicated.) The bottom line is that the Beatles are already getting the sweetest deal ever with iTunes on their records being downloaded. Now John Lennon and Paul McCartney’s music publisher–Sony/ATV–will try and get even better deals with iTunes on the publishing end.

Will other music publishers follow suit and leave BMI and ASCAP to make their own digital deals? If so, the music licensing firms will face their own pronlems with those revenues cut.

Nora Ephron’s Mike McAlary Play Stars Tom Hanks, Features Lots of Real New York Characters

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The first casting call has gone out for Nora Ephron’s play about the late New York Post reporter Mike McAlary. “Lucky Guy” will star Tom Hanks and be directed by George C. Wolfe. It’s unclear who will step in for Nora and make changes as the play rehearses, and I refuse to call her the “late Nora Ephron.” It sounds awful.

Anyway: the play will have a lot of New York press types as characters which will be very amusing. It’s an understatement to say Nora would have gotten a kick out of it seeing all these people on a stage. “Lucky Guy” is set for a winter opening. I like that Debby Krenek is going to be a character. She’ll be a fun one. Jimmy Breslin seems to be a minor character. We’ll see how long that lasts.

Here’s the play’s description, and the description of the characters, from the casting notice:

LUCKY GUY spans the period from 1985 – 1998 when the tabloid business in New York was in
its glory days. Small papers, big headlines. The city had become polarized between rich and
poor, black and white, criminals and cops. The crack epidemic was beginning, the murder rate
was at an all-time high. The city was loud, messy, chaotic and dangerous. The perfect place for a
young and hungry reporter to become a star.

SEEKING:
[MIKE MCALARY] Irish-American. 40s. A successful columnist. Even as a kid he dreamt of
becoming the next Jimmy Breslin. Driven and fearless he will go to places in the city where even
the cops are afraid to go. Becomes addicted to the rush that getting “The Story” brings, likes the
media spotlight a little bit too much and in the process makes potentially career ending mistakes.
But ultimately his passion for telling the stories forged in the crucible that is New York turns him
into a great award winning columnist. (UNDERSTUDY ONLY)

[HAP HAIRSTON] African-American. 40s-50s. An editor, brilliant at inspiring reporters and
sharpening their copy. His combination of fierce intelligence, ordinariness and generosity allow
those around him to shine. He is one in a handful of minorities to break into a world historically
dominated by the Irish and he’s had to work ten times harder than the next guy to get there.
Comfortable with the controlled chaos of the newsroom.

[JOHN COTTER] Irish-American. 50s-60s. A managing editor. An old school newspaper man
who will do anything to get a good story. He loves the hard working, hard drinking culture of the
city newsroom and thrives on the competitive pressures of the tabloid wars, working, in the end,
for all three. He has a keen nose for a story and excellent instincts about writers. A great mentor
to Mike with the ability to push him to do the near impossible. A brilliant man who never eats and
never sleeps. He just drinks.

[EDDIE HAYES] Irish-American. 40s-50s. A lawyer. Grew up in a working class Irish
neighborhood in Queens. An ex-Bronx DA known for his relentless prosecution of murderers and
drug dealers, he is now a high flying lawyer in private practice with a taste for handmade suits,
headline grabbing cases and movie stars with big problems. But donÂ’t let the fancy suits and
pocket squares fool you. Scratch the surface and thereÂ’s a tough New York street fighter more
than capable of taking care of himself and his friends.

[ALICE MCALARY] Italian-American. Mid-30s. A girl from Massapequa, Long Island. Smart,
pretty and funny. At ease with the tough guys in the newsroom who adore her in return. Tough
and a little salty, she can give as good as she gets. She is totally loyal to Mike and constantly
challenges him to be the best man and the best reporter that he can be. But her husband’s
success comes with a price tag. She is often alone in their house on Long Island while he works
the streets and bars of New York 24/7 for a story.
[MICHAEL DALY] Irish-American. A columnist at The Daily News. Late 30s-early 40Â’s. As a
young reporter he is taken with the romance of the newspaper business. Spends a lot of time in
the trenches with Mike and teaches him the fine points of being a columnist.
[JIM DWYER] A columnist at Newsday. Irish-American born and bred in New York. Late 30s –
40s. While Mike is mixing with cops and gangsters he is covering the closing of the last 24 hour
hotdog stand in the subway. He watches with increasing frustration as Mike’s star rises. He is
smart with a slightly self-deprecating sense of humor.
[BOB DRURY] Irish-American. Mid 30s–early 40s. A reporter. He is tall, good looking and
charismatic. He has spent his life working in the newspaper world, starting as a copy boy and
then fighting, alongside Mike, to escape a career as a sportswriter where he has no patience for
the dumb, narcissistic jocks he’s surrounded by. Has a legendary bar room brawl with Mike. This
role will most likely double with JOHN MILLER: Deputy Commissioner for Public Information at
the NYPD. 40’s. A former journalist turned Police Department PR guy. He has retained the hardnosed
edge of a reporter in his press conferences.
[LOUISE IMERMAN] A reporter. 30s. One of only a small handful of women that made it in to the
tough talking, booze and adrenaline driven, misogynist world of tabloid journalism. She’s
definitely “one of the boys.” She curses like a truck driver and holds her own at the bar. She’s in
the newsroom because she’s tough and talented but she doesnÂ’t hesitate to work the guys if
she thinks it will help her to get a story or meet a deadline. This role doubles with DEBBY
KRENEK: An editor at The Daily News. Texan. Initially a section editor she keeps her head down
and works hard. Everyone thinks she’ll run the paper one day. She is pragmatic and steady. As
genteel as she is tough. The voice of reason amidst the ongoing chaos of the newsroom. Fiercely
loyal to her staff. She does indeed become the first female Editor in Chief in the papers 79 year
history. This is a role for a character actress with range and comedic skill.
[JERRY NACHMAN] Jewish. Editor at The New York Post. 50s. A Brooklyn native, he has never
lost his passion for telling stories about his city. A smart guy who is all skill and no pretense. He is
a gifted newsman. Confident and tenacious, he always accomplishes what he sets out to do. A
lion in the business that he knows inside and out. This role will most likely double with STANLEY
JOYCE: Managing editor of The Daily News. A tough minded boss.
[ABNER LOUIMA] Haitian. 30s. A security guard at a sewage treatment plant. Physically delicate. A
thoughtful, quiet man. After trying to help break up a fight outside a Brooklyn nightclub he is arrested, beaten
and brutally assaulted by officers at the 70th Precinct. He brings his story to Mike, who goes on to win the
Pulitzer Prize for his exposé of Louima’s horrific attack.
[MALE ENSEMBLE] 20s-50s. “Good cops, Bad cops, Reporters, Columnists and Criminals.” A small
ensemble of character actors with great New York City texture and faces to play small as well as nondialogued
roles with likely understudy responsibilities to include DINO TORTORICI: 20’s. An Italian-
American kid from Yonkers whose girlfriend has died after taking cyanide tainted Tylenol. He becomes the
subject of Mike’s first headline story. BARTENDER: He will be the bartender at the various places the guys
go drinking. Sometimes Elaine’s, sometimes the Lion’s Head in the village, sometimes McGuire’s. JIMMY
BRESLIN: the legendary NYC Columnist and O’REGAN: 40s. A crooked cop.