Friday box office: “Deadpool” soared and scored $47.5 million on Friday night. Ryan Reynolds at last has his hit movie. They’re headed to a $125 million four day weekend. Let’s see if this helps Fox stock.

“Zoolander 2” is a total disaster with $4.2 million on Friday night. Why was this movie made? The first “Zoolander” was not a hit, and had bad reviews. So let’s make a sequel. “Zoolander” was a great sketch that should never have been expanded into something larger.

And then there was the whole hubris of Anna Wintour, Vogue, and Conde Nast being involved, as well as the designers and models “Zoolander” was supposed to lampoon. It serves Vogue right to be stuck with a stinker on its cover. How ridiculous. To see Anna Wintour in this movie, mugging around, and then to see her hosting the after party for the premiere, yikes. Well, talk about instant karma.

I am really happy that Joel and Ethan Coen’s “Hail Caesar!” is doing business after the crazy reviews. Go see this movie! It’s a lovely satire with terrific performances, snappy dialogue, and great production design. Josh Brolin and Scarlett Johansson are superb. George Clooney is under-rated and very funny. I loved Alison Pill as the clueless Fifties mom. This movie’s legacy will improve with time.

Also to be seen in this cold weather: Michael Moore’s “Where to Invade Next.” Not to be missed.

If you wait long enough, anything can happen. Ryan Reynolds is about to have his first actual hit, and a well-reviewed one. “Deadpool” has already taken in $14 million abroad, and is set to be the number 1 movie of the weekend. Plus, it’s got an 82 on Rotten Tomatoes. For Reynolds, that’s a 100.

It’s not like he hasn’t tried. “The Green Lantern” made over $100 million, but the reviews were terrible, no one liked it. “Woman in Gold” was an arty movie with Helen Mirren, but it made $33 million, and it wasn’t so popular.

Reynolds tried a series movie with “Buried,” and it was buried alive. A bad idea, the confining film took in one million dollars. And that may have been by accident.

Reynolds’ only real hit was “The Proposal” with Sandra Bullock in 2009. It wasn’t well reviewed, but it was better than you thought, and made over $300 million worldwide. But it was a Sandra Bullock movie.

“Deadpool,” which I haven’t seen, expands on his “X Men: Wolverine” character also from 2009. Reviews and the trailers and clips suggest that director Tim Miller, and writers Rhett Reese and Paul Wernick, have actually been able to capture Reynolds’ strong, sarcastic delivery and mix it with an action movie.  He’s glib, and facile with smart-mouth dialogue. Mix that with leading man good looks, and Ryan Reynolds may be on to something at last.

He’s worked hard enough.  He was even in a Julia Roberts movie no one’s ever heard of, called “Fireflies in the Garden.” This weekend belongs to Ryan Reynolds. Congrats.

Friday morning, Academy voters can start their engines, er, ballots. Oscar prognosticators are running around like chickens without heads. Who’s in the lead? Who dropped out? Everyone is certain of nothing.

The BEST PICTURE race seems like it’s somewhere between “Spotlight,” “The Revenant,” and “The Big Short.” They are each terrific films. “The Revenant” is beautiful, and daring. It’s also a little pointless. I think it’s great that Leonardo DiCaprio will finally get an Oscar. He’s worked damn hard for it; he’s no slouch. Frankly, his “Wolf of Wall Street” performance was better. But in “The Revenant” Leo slept in a horse carcass and was mauled by a bear. What else can he do? Give it to him now.

“The Big Short” is beautifully constructed, sage and prescient. Adam McKay managed to put a financial crisis into layman’s terms, and he made us care about a disparate group of people. Once again, Steve Carell surprised us. Christian Bale is remarkable. In a few months we may be looking at “The Big Short” ruefully as this economy craters. (Please god, no.) “The Big Short”is stylish and savvy.

But to me “Spotlight” is the Big Idea movie of 2016. The screenplay is a winner. The direction is superb. There’s a reason “Spotlight” won the SAG Award and Critics Choice: that ensemble swings like a big band. There isn’t a false note. And you just keep waiting for that moment when someone asks “Robbie” (Michael Keaton) why no one acted on the pedophilia story years ago. And we know the answer. Still, it’s just one of many little cherry bombs that reveals “Spotlight” as a human endeavor. No one is perfect. But at least they got it together at last. “Spotlight” is going to resonate for years to come.

So Leo is Best Actor. Brie Larson seems like she’s sweeping in for Best Actress from “Room.” None of the others have run a campaign. Jennifer Lawrence and Cate Blanchett have Oscars. Charlotte Rampling made some mistakes in her interviews. Saorise Ronan is alm0st-there but not quite. Brie was exceptional in an exquisite jewel box of a movie.

Sylvester Stallone– what can I say? Give it to him already. Mark Ruffalo’s chances were sort of blown because “Spotlight” needed a lead actor. Without it, there’s not as much momentum. Mark Rylance is just happy to be there. He’s the best stage actor in the world.  It’s Stallone’s year, after forty of them.

Best Supporting Actress is a hard category. Alicia Vikander is in the lead, from “The Danish Girl.” I thought Kate Winslet was so good in “Steve Jobs,” and Jennifer Jason Leigh had the comeback of the year in “The Hateful Eight.” I’m so glad Rachel McAdams finally got some acknowledgment, from “Spotlight.” She’s also worked really hard and is always top notch. Frankly, I thought Rooney Mara would be the winner. I still kind of think that now. This is the worst category. Can’t they all win?

Original screenplay– “Spotlight.” Adapted screenplay– “The Big Short.” My only caveat is that “Bridge of Spies” is a sleeper. It’s also got a Big Idea. And it may outlast all of these movies.

Direct0r– Seems like it’s George Miller vs. Alejandro Innaritu. The latter just won, Miller’s been waiting a long time. I would actually choose Steven Spielberg, who makes everything look easy. Ridley Scott should have been nominated, ditto F. Gary Gray. The winner? Hard to say. Innaritu may prevail simply because he went somewhere no one would go, and did a damn fine job. But Miller did, too, if you think about it.

Best Song– I’m crazy about Lady Gaga’s “Til It Happens to You.” Diane Warren wrote the song primarily, and this is her 8th nomination. I think the timing is good all the way around.

Let the voting begin, kids.