The social media Oscar prognosticators are heading to their climax on Sunday night.
But the only real toss up, I think, is Best Actor. Ethan Hawke should have won, but his campaign was minimal. Timothee Chalamet was the front runner for a long time, but he’s perhaps blown himself up. That leaves Michael B. Jordan, who is now the front runner.
You never know, but Chalamet could still win. Most of the hate directed at him came too late to influence voters. If he brings Kylie Jenner to the show, he will absolutely lose, however. The universe will not permit that.
The other winners, I’m afraid, look pretty set in stone. Paul Thomas Anderson and “One Battle After Another” are going to take Best Director and Best Picture. This doesn’t mean that Ryan Coogler and “Sinners” don’t deserve it. But as a whole movie, “One Battle” is the most satisfying one of the year.
Also, Sean Penn will pick up a third Oscar, this time in Best Supporting Actor, for “One Battle.” His path to success was just laying low and letting the work speak for itself.
Jessie Buckley has Best Actress wrapped up for “Hamnet.” Standing at the lip of the Old Globe stage, her character — Mrs. Shakespeare — has that indelible moment you can’t ignore. (Also, I really think Paul Mescal got screwed with no nomination. He was spectacular.)
Amy Madigan in a cinch for Best Supporting Actress from “Weapons.” Personally, I loved Teyana Taylor in “One Battle.” But Madigan was great, and the role caps off 50 years in the business.
Screenplay awards will go to “Sinners” for original and “One Battle” for adapted.
Again, maybe I’m wrong, or maybe there’s a huge surprise. This Oscar season went on two or three weeks too long. But this what happens. Just as voting begins you think something has changed in the mindsets of voters. How many times did we say to ourselves, “One more week and –“?
But you know, it always turns out the same way.
“Frankenstein” will pick up several below the line awards. Guillermo del Toro is headed to a Governor’s Award one day soon.
One more thing about “Sinners,” and I said it before: if they gave out Oscars for single scenes, the dance number in the barn would win. It was the only real ‘gasp’ moment of the season.
