Home Uncategorized Oscars Predictions: No One Knows Anything as Gravity Goes Against 12 Years...

Oscar predictions: no one knows anything. The whole weekend has been spent listening to people wonder whether anyone saw “12 Years a Slave” and voted for it. We’re about to find out. Did the Academy go for the big studio, “easy” choice in “Gravity”? Or did they finally cave in, see Steve McQueen’s movie, and realize how important it is?

Best Picture is not about a movie being “entertaining.” It’s about leaving a legacy from the film community.

The big problem tonight is that “12 Years” could lose several categories before we get to the end of the evening. “Gravity” looks like a lock for Editing, Cinematography and other tech awards. It could be that we go from a Best Supporting Actress win for Lupita Nyong’o early on, and then not much until the very last award. That means we’ve got a real nail biter.

Meantime, the Oscar prognosticating sites have pretty much gone the safe route. None of them have made any kind of left or right of center choice. My only weird thought is this: Matthew McConaughey and Leonardo DiCaprio cross each other out, and Chiwetel Ejiofor wins. It’s not that I don’t want MM to get a statue. But if the four actors who won the Spirit Awards win the Oscars, it’s going to be a fizz.

Thankfully, there’s a lot of entertainment on tonight’s show: U2, Bette Midler, Pink, Idina Menzel are among the performers. Neil Meron and Craig Zadan will not disappoint.

Sadly no appearance tonight from Judi Dench. She’s in India. And why should she make such a long trip with Cate Blanchett set to win? She and Woody Allen will be the most noticeable absentees. Woody never comes to the show. And everyone will be looking for Christian Bale. Let’s hope he makes it.


Roger Friedman began his Showbiz411 column in April 2009 after 10 years with Fox News, where he created the Fox411 column. He wrote the Intelligencer column for NY Magazine in the mid 90s, reporting on the OJ Simpson trial, as well as for the real Parade magazine (when it was owned by Conde Nast), and has written for the New York Observer, Details, Vogue, Spin, the New York Times, NY Post, Washington Post, and NY Daily News among many publications. He is the writer and co-producer of "Only the Strong Survive," a selection of the Cannes, Sundance, and Telluride Film festivals, directed by DA Pennebaker and Chris Hegedus.

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