Monday, April 15, 2024

Oscars Predictions: No One Knows Anything as Gravity Goes Against 12 Years a Slave


Oscar predictions: no one knows anything. The whole weekend has been spent listening to people wonder whether anyone saw “12 Years a Slave” and voted for it. We’re about to find out. Did the Academy go for the big studio, “easy” choice in “Gravity”? Or did they finally cave in, see Steve McQueen’s movie, and realize how important it is?

Best Picture is not about a movie being “entertaining.” It’s about leaving a legacy from the film community.

The big problem tonight is that “12 Years” could lose several categories before we get to the end of the evening. “Gravity” looks like a lock for Editing, Cinematography and other tech awards. It could be that we go from a Best Supporting Actress win for Lupita Nyong’o early on, and then not much until the very last award. That means we’ve got a real nail biter.

Meantime, the Oscar prognosticating sites have pretty much gone the safe route. None of them have made any kind of left or right of center choice. My only weird thought is this: Matthew McConaughey and Leonardo DiCaprio cross each other out, and Chiwetel Ejiofor wins. It’s not that I don’t want MM to get a statue. But if the four actors who won the Spirit Awards win the Oscars, it’s going to be a fizz.

Thankfully, there’s a lot of entertainment on tonight’s show: U2, Bette Midler, Pink, Idina Menzel are among the performers. Neil Meron and Craig Zadan will not disappoint.

Sadly no appearance tonight from Judi Dench. She’s in India. And why should she make such a long trip with Cate Blanchett set to win? She and Woody Allen will be the most noticeable absentees. Woody never comes to the show. And everyone will be looking for Christian Bale. Let’s hope he makes it.


Roger Friedman
Roger Friedman
Roger Friedman began his Showbiz411 column in April 2009 after 10 years with Fox News, where he created the Fox411 column. His movie reviews are carried by Rotten Tomatoes, and he is a member of both the movie and TV branches of the Critics Choice Awards. His articles have appeared in dozens of publications over the years including New York Magazine, where he wrote the Intelligencer column in the mid 90s and covered the OJ Simpson trial, and Fox News (when it wasn't so crazy) where he covered Michael Jackson. He is also the writer and co-producer of "Only the Strong Survive," a selection of the Cannes, Sundance, and Telluride Film festivals, directed by DA Pennebaker and Chris Hegedus.

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