The movie world is counting down to July 21st. That’s when Universal Pictures opens Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” and Warner Bros. delivers Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie” (co-written with husband Noah Baumbach).
When box office receipts are counted on Saturday morning, July 22nd, life as we know it may never be the same.
This legendary death cage match has a lot of history and baggage. Nolan made all his movies at Warner Bros, for two decades. But when his impenetrable “Tenet” had to be released during the pandemic, the company put it on streaming, where it was even less understandable. Nolan was furious, and left the company.
Recently the Warner’s honchos said they wanted to woo him back. So why release “Barbie” on the same day? That decision remains a mystery. But the result is a collision both in theaters and backstage. Press screenings for the two films are on the same days, causing a lot agita among reviewers. At least their big premieres are on different coasts. “Oppenheimer” is here in New York, “Barbie” is in Los Angeles.
The real test will be on Sunday night (tomorrow) when the press social media embargo lifts for “Barbie.” Then we’ll start to see reactions from critics. These early reactions will be vital for a lot of reasons. Warner Bros, coming off a huge dud with “The Flash,” needs a big hit more than Universal. If “Barbie” isn’t swooned over, the spectre of David Zaslav will loom large. He would love to sell Barbie and Ken’s Dream House in a minute.
Among the ticket buying audience so far “Barbie” — with an enormous marketing plan — is tracking to open between $70 and $80 million. “Oppenheimer” is put at $40 million. But which one will get better reviews? And which will last through Labor Day?
The match has meantime inspired dozens of t shirt designs for what is being called “Barbenheimer.” This could be a good thing for both movies, sending fans to see each of them on the first weekend. That’s what Tom Cruise says he plans to do. Of course, his movie, “Dead Reckoning — Part One,” opens a week earlier. It’s more than likely that that film will hold the top spot for a second week in a row, pushing the warring duo to numbers two and three.
Check back on Sunday night for the early takes.
