Tuesday, May 21, 2024

Is “La La Land” the Best Oscar Picture After Golden Globes Win? Not Necessarily, As History Shows


“La La Land” won 7 Golden Globes last night including Best Picture-Musical or Comedy, Best Director, Actor and Actress. The movie set a record with the Globes.

But that’s a vote among 90 people who have no connection to the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Indeed, almost 6,000 people will vote on the Oscars. And “La La Land” is no sure thing.

The Globes are not a predictor of the Oscars. Last year, the Globes chose “The Revenant” as Best Picture. And the Oscar went to “Spotlight.”

In fact, my guess is that the Oscar for Best Picture will go to either “Manchester by the Sea” or “Moonlight.” Now, “Moonlight” was the choice of the Globes for Best Picture–Drama. But even that may have had to do with internal HFPA politics. Executive producer Brad Pitt wouldn’t come out of hiding during his divorce debacle unless he was assured that “Moonlight” winning. So take this all with a pinch of salt.

Don’t forget, the HFPA shockingly snubbed “Moonlight” actor Mahershala Ali for Aaron Johnson. There was a giant spit take in the room when that happened.

No, I think “Manchester by the Sea,” the best written and directed drama of the year, now jumps forward. Amazon will stick with it, and keep up the PR campaign. I think they have a decent shot. So hold on. The Oscars want surprises, not just a rerun of the Globes. Stay tuned…

Roger Friedman
Roger Friedmanhttps://www.showbiz411.com
Roger Friedman began his Showbiz411 column in April 2009 after 10 years with Fox News, where he created the Fox411 column. His movie reviews are carried by Rotten Tomatoes, and he is a member of both the movie and TV branches of the Critics Choice Awards. His articles have appeared in dozens of publications over the years including New York Magazine, where he wrote the Intelligencer column in the mid 90s and covered the OJ Simpson trial, and Fox News (when it wasn't so crazy) where he covered Michael Jackson. He is also the writer and co-producer of "Only the Strong Survive," a selection of the Cannes, Sundance, and Telluride Film festivals, directed by DA Pennebaker and Chris Hegedus.

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