This is just a scratch idea. But here goes as of today:
BEST PICTURE— Dunkirk, The Post, Ladybird, The Florida Project, Phantom Thread, The Darkest Hour, Call Me By Your Name, Get Out, Three Billboards, The Shape of Water. The Big Sick is hanging in there. My two favorite movies, The Meyerowitz Stories and Baby Driver won’t get in, sad to say. Mudbound is on the waiting list. So is I, Tonya.
BEST ACTOR— Tom Hanks, Daniel Day Lewis, Gary Oldman, Jake Gyllenhaal, Timothee Chalamet– with Daniel Kaluuya on the outside, gaining traction.
BEST ACTRESS— Meryl Streep, Judi Dench, Sally Hawkins, Saorise Ronan, Vicky Krieps– with Margot Robbie so close, and Jessica Chastain holding onto a spot. I think Kate Winslet is out this year.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR — Mark Rylance, Willem Dafoe, Sam Rockwell, Armie Hammer, Dustin Hoffman. Before they moved Hammer to Supporting, I thought Michael Stuhlbarg would be included. Now that seems unlikely. Ben Mendelsohn special mention for “Darkest Hour.”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS— Alison Janney, Laurie Metcalf, Holly Hunter, Octavia Spencer, Melissa Leo (for “Novitiate”– Academy members watch this performance, please). Lesley Manville, Mary J. Blige, Lois Smith (who should be a presenter this year, please) all runners up in a hot category.
BEST DIRECTOR— Spielberg, Joe Wright, Paul Thomas Anderson, Christopher Nolan, and Guillermo del Toro. I wish there were slots for Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach, Martin McDonagh, and Sean Baker.
Who knows? This will change, and change again.