Saturday, June 15, 2024

Predicting the Golden Globes: No Oscar Indicator, Academy Will Zig When the HFPA Zags


The Golden Globes are on tomorrow night. I won’t miss them, and neither will you.

But the Globes are no predictor of the Oscars. When the Hollywood Foreign Press zigs, the Academy zags.

And this year is a little more unusual than most. Oscar ballots are just going out as the Globes make their choices. In normal years, the Academy has already finished voting the nominations. But this year, there’s a little breathing room in between. And that won’t be good for Globes winners.

In the main movie categories, I’m reading that Carey Mulligan might win Best Actress/Drama for “Promising Young Woman.” That almost assures Frances McDormand the Oscar for “Nomadland.” And rightly so. Much as I love Carey Mulligan, “PYW” is not a good movie. Her performance is terrific, but the material is far below “Nomadland.”

There’s also talk that “The Trial of the Chicago 7” will win Best Drama. Again, that should cinch “Nomadland” as Best Picture at the Oscars. You’re starting to get the routine, now, right?

Best Actor? Anthony Hopkins should win the Oscar for “The Father,”a movie that probably scared the older members of the HFPA by hitting a little too close to home. Will they go for Chadwick Boseman in a posthumous award? Eh, not really their style. Riz Ahmed? Heavy metal drumming also not their thing. I don’t know why, but I feel like Gary Oldman in “Mank” could be their choice.

Supporting Actor? Doesn’t Sacha Baron Cohen have this locked up for “Chicago 7”? Come on. He also has “Borat 2″ lined for Best Comedy. Could Cohen take three statues and also get Best Actor in a Comedy for ‘Borat 2”? LOL. I’d like to see that.

Best Actress in a Comedy/Musical? Michelle Pfeiffer would be my choice, for “French Exit.” But the HFPA likes newcomers. If the “Borat” train is running well, Maria Bakalova is a cinch here as Tutar.

Supporting actress? I’d say Amanda Seyfried for “Mank” will appeal to the Globes. That way, the road is cleared for Olivia Colman or even possibly Glenn Close at the Oscars. My choice is still Valerie Mahaffey for “French Exit,” but maybe she’ll win the Spirit Award.

And all the Globes scandals of this year? They will be forgotten tomorrow around noon if the ratings are halfway decent. The HFPA will not be making any changes. And that’s life in the Big City kids, Grow up!

PS I will be live Tweeting and blogging those Globes beginning at 7pm Sunday night.

Roger Friedman
Roger Friedman
Roger Friedman began his Showbiz411 column in April 2009 after 10 years with Fox News, where he created the Fox411 column. His movie reviews are carried by Rotten Tomatoes, and he is a member of both the movie and TV branches of the Critics Choice Awards. His articles have appeared in dozens of publications over the years including New York Magazine, where he wrote the Intelligencer column in the mid 90s and covered the OJ Simpson trial, and Fox News (when it wasn't so crazy) where he covered Michael Jackson. He is also the writer and co-producer of "Only the Strong Survive," a selection of the Cannes, Sundance, and Telluride Film festivals, directed by DA Pennebaker and Chris Hegedus.

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