Sunday, May 26, 2024

Oscar Prognosticating in Mid October: A Star is Born Isn’t the Only Movie Out There But it’s The One to Beat


I see all the Oscar prognosticators are drawing up their lists for 2019. It’s only mid October, and there are several things no one has seen. But here’s my take, for better or worse.


A Star is Born–it’s the one to beat right now. Big stars, big box office, great reviews. Bradley Cooper for best director, actor, screenplay. Lady Gaga for Best Actress. In supporting, Sam Elliott is spot on.

First Man— Damien Chazelle’s epic had a rough opening weekend. But I stand behind it. Direction, writing, acting– Gosling and Foy are wonderful. There are lots of American flags, the movie is very patriotic.

Green Book— Best Picture, Director, Actor, Viggo Mortensen (Likely winner). Mahershala Ali, Supporting Actor. If this goes wrong, I don’t know what to do.

Blackkklansman— Spike Lee major return, directing, writing, John David Washington and Adam Driver will get noms. This is a majorly important film, and so entertaining.

A Quiet Place— Bradley Cooper got so much attention for directing himself in A Star is Born. But hey– John Krasinski did a phenomenal job with this movie. Emily Blunt should be in the Best Actress race. A gem of a film.

Roma, Never Look Away, and Capernaum— are all three incredible films, albeit in foreign languages. They all deserve to be Best Picture noms, but that’s why there’s Best Foreign Film. This a trio no one should miss as they’re released to theaters. Roma already has its accolades. The other two are just as remarkable.

The Hate U Give — I thought there’d be more brouhaha about this film. It’s so good, and so timely. Where is the larger discussion? In the long run, I just hope that Russell Hornsby is nominated for Best Supporting Actor. It would be a crime if he were overlooked.

Can You Ever Forgive Me?– Melissa McCarthy and Richard E. Grant are their own best ensemble, they each deserve nods– he’s in supporting–and had better get them.

The Favourite— So many weird things here. I thought it would be Emma Stone in lead, Olivia Colman and Rachel Weisz in supporting. But now I hear that Colman and Stone are switched to lead and supporting. All three are sensational. The movie just nuts, but in the best way possible.

Glenn Close— in The Wife. Best Actress, nomination at least. I wish a groundswell would develop. Unforgettable.

Black Panther— Will it get a Best Picture nod? I’m not so sure. If Wonder Woman didn’t, then why this one? Such a well made, fun film. Is it an Oscar movie? And isn’t $700 million the reward for Ryan Coogler’s good work? Below the line, lots of nods. But above? Unclear until we see how other things play out.

Miscellaneous: Viola Davis in Widows; Robert Forster in What We Had; Nicole Kidman and Sam Rockwell in “Destroyer”; Nicole again in “Boy Erased”; “Isle of Dogs” must not be forgotten.

So hold on– we’ll be back. Just some info to chew on for the moment…



Roger Friedman
Roger Friedman
Roger Friedman began his Showbiz411 column in April 2009 after 10 years with Fox News, where he created the Fox411 column. His movie reviews are carried by Rotten Tomatoes, and he is a member of both the movie and TV branches of the Critics Choice Awards. His articles have appeared in dozens of publications over the years including New York Magazine, where he wrote the Intelligencer column in the mid 90s and covered the OJ Simpson trial, and Fox News (when it wasn't so crazy) where he covered Michael Jackson. He is also the writer and co-producer of "Only the Strong Survive," a selection of the Cannes, Sundance, and Telluride Film festivals, directed by DA Pennebaker and Chris Hegedus.

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